Realignment in America. How the 2026 Mid-term Elections are Shaping the Future

The mid-term elections will be a crucial test of the political and social divisions that have increasingly shaped the United States. One third of the Senate and all members of the House of Representatives will be elected, making control of Congress a decisive factor for the remainder of Donald Trump’s presidency.

If the Democrats succeed in winning control of Congress, Trump could effectively become a lame-duck president during the second half of his term. A Democratic majority could significantly restrict the administration’s ability to pass legislation, control government spending, and pursue some of its domestic priorities. At the same time, however, the administration has various tools at its disposal to influence the political environment, such as intimidation, political pressure, restrictive voting measures and aggressive rhetoric, which can affect voter turnout and citizens’ willingness to participate in the elections. Do such strategies primarily mobilise Trump’s supporters, or can they also discourage opposition voters from going to the polls?

Another important question is the role of foreign policy. Traditionally, US mid-term elections have been dominated by domestic issues such as the economy, immigration, healthcare and inflation. Yet conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, relations with China, NATO and the future of US support for Ukraine could increasingly influence voters and shape the broader political debate. This is particularly relevant for Europe, where the outcome of the elections could have significant consequences for transatlantic relations, European security and the future of NATO. What lessons can European democracies learn from the increasing polarisation of American politics, and how should Europe prepare for a potentially more unpredictable and confrontational United States?

Cas Mudde, Professor of International Affairs / Political Science, University of Georgia
Erin Kristin Jenne, Professor of International Relations, Central European University
Reinhard Heinisch, Professor of Political Science, University of Salzburg

Moderation
Raimund Löw, journalist, author and historian, head of Falter Radio