Realignment in America. How the Midterm Elections 2026 are Shaping the Future

The midterm elections will be a crucial test of the political and social divisions that have increasingly shaped the United States. One third of the Senate and all members of the House of Representatives will be elected, making control of Congress a decisive factor for the remainder of Donald Trump’s presidency.

If the Democrats succeed in winning control of Congress, Trump could effectively become a lame-duck president during the second half of his term. A Democratic majority could significantly constrain the administration’s ability to pass legislation, control government spending, and pursue some of its domestic priorities. At the same time, however, the administration has various instruments at its disposal to influence the political environment, like intimidation, political pressure, restrictive voting measures, and aggressive rhetoric which can affect voter turnout and the willingness of citizens to participate in the elections. Do such strategies primarily mobilize Trump’s supporters, or can they also discourage opposition voters from going to the polls?

Another important question is the role of foreign policy. Traditionally, US midterm elections have been dominated by domestic issues such as the economy, immigration, healthcare, and inflation. Yet conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, relations with China, NATO, and the future of US support for Ukraine could increasingly influence voters and shape the broader political debate. This is particularly relevant for Europe, where the outcome of the elections could have significant consequences for transatlantic relations, European security, and the future of NATO. What lessons can European democracies draw from the increasing polarization of American politics, and how should Europe prepare for a potentially more unpredictable and confrontational United States?

Cas Mudde, Professor of International Affairs / Political Science, University of Georgia
Erin Kristin Jenne, Professor of International Relations, Central European University
Reinhard Heinisch, Professor of Political Science, University of Salzburg

Moderation:
Raimund Löw, Journalist, author, and historian, head of Falter Radio