The Horn of Africa on the brink of collapse?

Annette Weber, Georg Lennkh, Irene Horejs

The Horn of Africa on the brink of collapse?
A geopolitical crisis outside the view of the Western media

The Horn of Africa, with the multi-ethnic states of Ethiopia and Eritrea, Somalia and the small state of Djibouti, situated on the border to the theatre of war in Sudan and the interface between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, plays an important geostrategic role. Due to its strategic location opposite the Arabian Peninsula (Yemen and Saudi Arabia) and on the central sea route of world trade on the Red Sea, the entrance to the Suez Canal, the region has always been of great interest to the world powers. After the Second World War, the Horn became one of the main theatres of the "Cold War" on the African continent. Today, more than 10% of world trade and a large proportion of European liquefied natural gas imports pass through this sea route. The deep crises that are currently shaking the countries in the region therefore also have the potential to affect international trade and Europe's energy supply. The key country Sudan and, to a certain extent, Ethiopia are torn apart by internal wars, the effects of which are also destabilising the surrounding countries. Ethiopia's relations with arch-enemy Eritrea have reached a new low, Somalia is facing an uncertain future in the fight against the terrorist group Al Shaabab following the withdrawal of international troops and Ethiopia's latest initiative to secure access to the Red Sea by recognising the breakaway province of Somaliland is adding fuel to the fire. The Nile water conflict between Ethiopia, Sudan and the regional superpower Egypt has still not been resolved either.

Although these conflicts are ostensibly internal and inter-state conflicts, they have a geopolitical dimension and are fuelled by external forces that support the various warring parties. This is particularly true of the war in Sudan. Both neighbouring countries and the international community are watching these developments with great concern. There are a number of initiatives to ease the situation (including from the USA and Saudi Arabia, the regional sub-group of the African Union IGAD, the United Nations), the success of which is still uncertain. What do these initiatives consist of and what are their prospects? What geopolitical interests are involved in the Horn of Africa and what is the role of Russia, China, Turkey, the West and others? What are the EU's interests in the region, what is the EU's strategy in this conflict? In particular, what are Austria's interests and what can Austria do?

Greeting:
Georg Lennkh, former Austrian Special Envoy for Africa, Member of the Board of the Kreisky Forum

Annette Weber, Special Representative of the European Union for the Horn of Africa

Moderation
Irene Horejs, former EU Ambassador to Mali and Niger