US MIDTERM ELECTIONS - AN ANALYSIS

Eva Nowotny in conversation with Reinhard Heinisch
US MIDTERM ELECTIONS - AN ANALYSIS

In the American midterm elections, the entire House of Representatives and a third of the Senate are re-elected.
The decisive factor, as is generally the case in American elections, is voter turnout. The one whose supporters are more likely to go to the polls wins. Election campaigns are therefore less campaigns of persuasion and more battles of mobilisation. Emotions and fuelling fear of the opponent play the main role here.
All but two presidents since the Second World War have suffered defeats in midterms. This is because in the middle of their term of office, their own voters are still more likely to be satisfied with the political situation and therefore less likely to be mobilised. In contrast, political opponents are keen to finally show the president and his party what they are made of. However, the whole thing is still influenced by locally relevant issues and people, because without the president as a driving force on the ballot paper, other things suddenly become more important.
The outcome of these elections will have a major impact on US domestic policy and, above all, on the remaining two years of Joe Biden's presidency.

Reinhard Heinisch, University Professor of Austrian Politics in Comparative European Perspective and Head of the Department of Political Science and Sociology, Paris Lodron University Salzburg

Eva Nowotny, Member of the Board of the Bruno Kreisky Forum, retired diplomat, Chairwoman of the University Council of the University of Vienna